FishingĪ father and son go out fishing one day. Equally, it is easier to take the credit when things go right. It is easier for them to put the blame on others when it goes wrong instead of taking responsibility and damaging their ego. In turn, it costs the CEO’s company millions and is a complete failure.Īfter the event, the CEO announces ‘I never liked that idea in the first place’ and instead puts the blame on their subordinates. When an idea gets proposed, the CEO may say ‘let’s go for this’, but a competitor goes for an even better strategy. However, once it spread throughout the rest of the world, journalists changed tune – claiming that we knew it was coming and did not prepare sufficiently. The likelihood was seen as very low, with many governments not even bothering to prepare for such an event. Human rights abuses were claimed with the country putting many regions in lockdown.Īt the time, it was seen that it would never reach the rest of the world, with it being seen as just another localized disease. COVID-19ĭuring the Coronavirus outbreak of 2020, many journalists believed that China was employing unnecessary draconian measures when the outbreak started. In hindsight, John believes that he thought the likelihood of Company X gaining value was higher than in reality. Yet he didn’t buy them because he wasn’t sure. John then claims he knew they would go up. The year later, the stock increases to $2 a stock. However, John isn’t too sure and is unwilling to invest money into the company. The company sells consumer goods and the economy seems to be doing well – suggesting it might be a good buy. For example, John thinks Company X is a good buy at $1 a stock. Let’s take another example of hindsight bias. So, their only perspective is that after the event, which leads to an inflated likelihood that the defendant actually knew. They know the gun was loaded and had the safety off, but they weren’t there before the incident. Yet these thoughts were proven wrong after the event, which can, in turn, lead the jury to hindsight bias. At the time, it may have been perfectly reasonable for the defendant to make such claims. However, the defendant claims that they did not know the gun was loaded and thought it had the safety on.Īlthough the defendant is still liable for negligence when in possession of a firearm, there may be a question of intent. For example, there may have been a homicide case where the defendant shot the victim. In court, the defendant is prone to become the victim of hindsight bias. To conclude, hindsight bias occurs when individuals believe that they correctly predicted the event before it occured, even though they were not certain. So rather than thinking Luna Runner was a 50/50 bet, she recalls that she thought it was close to 100 percent. However, she is recalling her thoughts after the race and thereby inflating her originally predicted odds. In her mind, she thought Luna Runner was a sure winner. Later on, they both watch the race and Luna Runner wins. Ryan decides not to place the bet as she is unsure. She thinks the odds are 50/50 at the time.Īfter much toing and froing, Mrs. Ryan likes the look of ‘Luna Runner’, but she is not convinced that she will win. Ryan are at the dog racing after a meal at a local Italian. With hindsight, it seems like we knew the outcome before it took place and therefore believe that was our original thought.People will believe that they thought the outcome was ‘certain’, even though they may not have been sure before.Hindsight bias is where the individual perceives the likelihood of an outcome to be significantly higher once it has happened.
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